Welcome to ‘Lock of the Day’, where I’ll be representing The Athletes Hub with the latest trends in sports betting. Be sure to check in daily for which bets are considered locks:
January 3rd: Chase Claypool OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards vs Cleveland Browns
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been inconsistent all together, but remain 2nd in the league in pass play percentage (63.5%) this season. In Week 8, Claypool caught 4-of-5 targets for 45 yards in a low-scoring victory for the Steelers. In three career matchups against the Cleveland Browns, Claypool has hit the 39.5 mark in each game, including a 101-yard performance on January 3rd of last year. The Browns are 22nd against the pass across the last three games, while Claypool has reached the 39.5 mark in five of his last six contests.
Result: 17 Receiving Yards
January 3rd: Jaren Jackson Jr UNDER 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs Brooklyn Nets
Since Ja Morant has returned to the lineup, Jaren Jackson Jr has struggled to meet the 25.5 mark. In fact, he’s missed the mark in 18 of his last 25 contests. The Brooklyn Nets are 5th in defensive efficiency this season and are 10th against the three-point shot. Luckily for those betting on the under, Jackson Jr is shooting a mere 32.2% from deep this season. Despite the Grizzlies facing COVID protocol struggles, Jackson Jr should come up short tonight.
Result: 12 Points + Rebounds + Assists
January 4th: Tyrese Haliburton OVER 23.5 Points + Assists vs Los Angeles Lakers
Tyrese Haliburton has been on a tear for the Sacramento Kings as of late, recording seven or more assists in each of his last 10 contests. At the 23.5 mark against a Los Angeles Lakers defense that allows the 5th-most points and assists per game, Haliburton should only need 15-16 points to hit on the over. In two matchups against the Lakers this year, he is averaging 7.5 assists per game.
Result: 16 Points + Assists
January 4th: Obi Toppin UNDER 25.5 Points + Rebounds vs Indiana Pacers
Julius Randle has cleared the COVID-19 health and safety protocols, and if he returns to the lineup tonight, he will ultimately send Toppin back to his presumed bench role. Even without Randle on Sunday, Toppin needed 45 mins on the floor to compile 19 points and six rebounds; still shy of the 25.5 mark he’s listed at for tonight. The Indiana Pacers are 9th in rebounding this season, while the New York Knicks play at the 4th-slowest pace in the league.
Result: 4 Points + Rebounds + Assists
January 4th: Fred VanVleet OVER 21.5 Points vs San Antonio Spurs
The Toronto Raptors have put up 114+ points in each of their last seven contests, while Fred VanVleet has scored 30+ points in each of the last two games. Across the last four games, he is shooting an astronomical 23-of-50 (46%) from three-point range. Last time out against the San Antonio Spurs, VanVleet was responsible for 27 points, shooting 10-of-20 from the field. The Spurs surrender the 2nd-most points to opposing guards, which should give VanVleet plenty of opportunities to reach the 21.5 mark.
Result: 33 Points
January 5th: Saddiq Bey OVER 23.5 Points + Assists vs Charlotte Hornets
Since losing Jerami Grant in December, the Detroit Pistons have seen the emergence of Saddiq Bey as their primary scoring option. He has scored 20 or more points in eight of the last nine games, averaging 25 points per game during that span. The Charlotte Hornets rank 28th in defensive efficiency while allowing a league-high 116.7 points per game. The assists become an insurance factor to reach the 23.5 mark, as Bey has totaled three or more assists in five of his last six contests.
Result: 12 Points + Assists
January 5th: Tyler Herro OVER 23.5 Points vs Portland Trail Blazers
The Miami Heat are without Jimmy Butler due to an ankle injury, which results in more volume for Herro on Wednesday night. He has played 35+ minutes in each of the last four games, averaging 20.5 shots from the field during that span. The Portland Trail Blazers are last in defensive efficiency this season and allow the 5th-most points from three-point range.
Result: 16 Points
January 5th: Domantas Sabonis UNDER 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets get an important boost to their lineup with the return of Kyrie Irving, but the line appears to be absurdly high on Domantas Sabonis for the Indiana Pacers tonight. He has come short of the 40.5 mark in each of his last three matchups against the Nets dating back to February of 2021, including a 29 PRA mark in October. The Nets rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season and rebound at the league average rate. It also doesn’t help that Indiana plays at the 7th-slowest pace in the NBA.
Result: 54 Points + Rebounds + Assists
January 6th: Andrew Wiggins OVER 20.5 Points vs New Orleans Pelicans
With Steph Curry dealing with a quad injury, he appears to be doubtful in tonight’s matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans. Based on Curry’s trend over the last 10 games, that means 21.1 shots should be up for grabs on Thursday. Wiggins reached 16 points across 26 minutes played in Golden State’s last outing against New Orleans, but has surpassed 26 minutes played in each of his last 18 contests. The Pelicans are 25th in defensive efficiency this season while allowing 8th-most points from three-point range. Wiggins has reached the 20.5 mark in four of his last five games, leaving confidence he should reach the mark once again. It was also noted that Draymond Green will be absent from Thursday’s contest, which only leaves more space for Wiggins to work with.
Result: 21 Points
January 6th: Brandon Ingram UNDER 22.5 Points vs Golden State Warriors
Since returning from his Achilles injury, Brandon Ingram has hit 8-of-36 (22.2%) shots from the field. Against the top-ranked team in defensive efficiency in Golden State, all the trends point to Ingram hitting the under on Thursday night. In each of his last three games against the Warriors dating back to February of 2020, Ingram has not reached the 22.5 mark. New Orleans has remained heathy to this point, and should continue to give other role players such as Josh Hart and Devonte’ Graham some volume.
Result: 32 Points
January 6th: Julius Randle OVER 26.5 Points + Assists vs Boston Celtics
In his first game back from COVID protocols on Tuesday against the Indiana Pacers, Randle played 39 minutes and totaled 30 points and four assists. He has cleared the 26.5 mark in each of his last four outings against the Boston Celtics, and averages 25.5 points per game in contests that are nationally televised this season. The Celtics are also allowing over 19 points per game to forwards/centers this season, which should leave plenty of opportunities for Randle to cover.
January 8th: Jaylen Brown OVER 22.5 Points vs New York Knicks
I’ll be going against the recency bias in which most will point to Jaylen Brown being limited to 16 points while shooting 6-of-14 from the field on Thursday night in Madison Square Garden. The Boston Celtics now get home court advantage, where Brown has surpassed the 22.5 mark in each of his last seven contests. On Thursday night, Brown was limited to 2-of-8 from three-point range. He will see continuous opportunities on a Celtics offense where he is averaging 19.1 shots from the field per game.
Result: 24 Points + Assists
January 9th: Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 235.5 Passing Yards vs Baltimore Ravens
Roethlisberger will likely play his last NFL game on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, who are limping to reach the end of the season with their various injuries on defense. The 39-year old quarterback has failed to reach the 235.5 mark in each of his last three games, with his best performance coming from a 160-yard performance. The weather forecast projects rain throughout Sunday afternoon in Baltimore, which could script a run-first offense for Pittsburgh that has a slim chance of making the postseason.