After a 60-game regular season, the MLB postseason is among us. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays have solidified themselves as the top seeds, while the Houston Astros are the only franchise with a regular under .500 (29-31) with the chance to claim the World Series trophy.
Here, we go through the strengths, weaknesses, and overall odds that each team can come out on top this postseason:
16. Toronto Blue Jays
Strengths:
In a three-game series, it will be important for the Blue Jays to make an instant impact with their bats. While Tampa Bay holds a superb pitching staff, Toronto has been impressive on offense. The team finished the regular season 7th in runs scored (302) and 9th in slugging percentage (.441). If they can get on base, they could remain competitive.
Weaknesses:
If the case is whether Toronto will get on base against Tampa Bay, it likely won’t come from walks. The Rays were the second-best team when it came to walks surrendered this past season, while the Blue Jays ranked 29th in forced walks (250). Unless there is a quick turnaround in plate discipline, it could be a short series.
World Series Odds: +3750
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Strengths:
Against the potential World Series favorites in the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Brewers are equipped to force low-scoring games. The pitching staff finished 3rd in home runs allowed (67), and totaled the third-most strikeouts (614) during the regular season. If the Brewers can limit the Dodgers offense, at least one of these games will be decided in the later innings.
Weaknesses:
Milwaukee just isn’t well-balanced in comparison to other postseason teams; let alone an elite opponent such as Los Angeles. The Brewers finished 29th in strikeouts (582), 27th in runs scored (247), 26th in batting average (.223), and 23rd in slugging percentage (.389). The offense hasn’t been able to hold its own, and it’s difficult to imagine why it would change over this series.
World Series Odds: +3500
14. Miami Marlins
Strengths:
It’s an overlooked statistic, but the Marlins are an intelligent team on the base path. The team finished 2nd in stolen bases (51), and also finished with the fifth-least amount of grounded into double plays. Against a Chicago Cubs roster that has struggled offensively, the Marlins could find themselves with runners in scoring position more often than not.
Weaknesses:
While the Marlins are an intelligent roster, it hasn’t translated in the right ways. The offense finished 25th in home runs (60), while finishing 24th in home runs allowed (82). In a league where the most dominant teams can either score through home runs or limit their opponents from them, it will be difficult to get into the win column.
World Series Odds: +3500
13. Cincinnati Reds
Strengths:
Entering the 2020 postseason, the Cincinnati Reds are one of a few sleeper organizations. The team finished 2nd in strikeouts (615) and 3rd in home runs allowed (67); establishing themselves as a respectable pitching staff. In addition, the team finished with a .986 fielding percentage; 5th in the MLB. As a result, the Reds won’t be a team that makes many mistakes against the Atlanta Braves.
Weaknesses:
While pitching is valuable, it won’t mean much if Cincinnati can’t put runs across the board. The team finished last in batting average (.212) and 27th in runs scored (243). To put that into perspective, the Braves finished 2nd in runs with 348. In this particular matchup, it seems to be a mismatch on paper.
World Series Odds: +3250
12. Houston Astros
Strengths:
Despite the cheating scandal, it’s important to remember the Houston Astros are an experienced organization that has appeared in two of the last three World Series. Therefore, it would be impractical to count them out. This was a team that had the best fielding percentage (.991) during the regular season, while also striking out (440) less than anyone else. While the Minnesota Twins are an excellent franchise, it will be a series to keep an eye on.
Weaknesses:
The injury to Justin Verlander, 37, could be the reason that Houston does not compete for a World Series title. Technically, 26-year old Framber Valdez has been the Astros’ best pitcher to date. Still, that could prove to be a burden as the postseason approaches. The team will rely on veteran Zack Greinke during Game 1.
World Series Odds: +2750
11. St Louis Cardinals
Strengths:
In comparison to the San Diego Padres, the St Louis Cardinals are a rather unique matchup. Both pitching staffs hold a top five WHIP (1.23), opponent average (.216), and run differential (+11). This may be a three-game series that comes down to discipline and the fundamentals. If that’s the case, the Cardinals could be a challenge.
Weaknesses:
While the Braves are prone to striking out (9th-most in MLB), the Cardinals aren’t nearly as efficient on the mound. The pitching staff finished with 464 strikeouts during the regular season; 27th in the MLB. While the Cardinals lost right-hander Dakota Hudson to Tommy John surgery, other names such as Jack Flaherty (4.91 ERA) have taken a step back.
World Series Odds: +2500
10. Cleveland Indians
Strengths:
Despite having to face the New York Yankees in the first round, the Cleveland Indians could be a dark horse in the American League. Their 37 quality starts this season were seven more than anyone else in the MLB. As a result, they finished with the most strikeouts (621), second-best ERA (3.29), and allowed the second-fewest walks (157). The Yankees have powerful bats throughout their lineup, but neutralizing it with the Indians’ pitching staff could be a recipe for success.
Weaknesses:
Similarly to the Marlins, the Indians just don’t have powerful bats in comparison to other teams in this current postseason. The offense finished 26th in slugging percentage (.372) and 27th in home runs (59) during the regular season. If the Yankees find a way to get on the scoreboard early, it will be an uphill battle for the Indians. Even if they find a way to move onto the following round, they would be up against the American League favorites in the Tampa Bay Rays.
World Series Odds: +1750
9. Chicago Cubs
Strengths:
Speaking of quality starts, the Chicago Cubs finished with 30 of them during the regular season; only trailing the Cleveland Indians. Defensively, the team ranked 6th in fielding percentage (.986). This is a disciplined organization that has aspirations of winning it all, and will hope their offense can translate that on the field.
Weaknesses:
While their pitching will be as expected, the offense has disappointed at times this season. Chicago ranked 24th in slugging percentage (.387), 27th in batting average (.220), and finished with the fifth-most strikeouts (568) during the regular season. While they are rightfully favored over the Miami Marlins, they will be against the odds after that.
World Series Odds: +1600
8. Chicago White Sox
Strengths:
As another sleeper team in this current postseason, the Chicago White Sox are a youthful roster with a lot of excitement. That translated during the regular season, as they finished 3rd in home runs (96), 5th in runs scored (306), and sixth in batting average (.261) and slugging percentage (.453). With an elite offense throughout the starting lineup, the White Sox could make some noise in the American League.
Weaknesses:
Despite the impressive performance on offense, Chicago can be described as “hot or cold” as well. The team finished with the fourth-most strikeouts (571) in the regular season, and only finished with the sixth-least amount of walks (179). Their plate discipline will be a narrative to keep an eye on, as they face an underappreciated club in the Oakland Athletics.
World Series Odds: +1500
7. Oakland Athletics
Strengths:
After taking in their first American League West division title since 2013, the Oakland Athletics will look to build upon their well-balanced regular season performance. The pitching staff finished with a 3.77 ERA; fifth in the MLB. Meanwhile, the offensive threats led to 165 forced walks; third in the league. There is potential in Oakland, and they won’t be faced with any assumed World Series favorites until the ALCS.
Weaknesses:
While the Athletics have the tendency to draw walks, their batting average of .225 ranks as the fifth-worst in the MLB. The loss of third baseman Matt Chapman (hip surgery) will prove to be a setback, and it’s entirely possible that a younger team such as the Chicago White Sox could threaten their postseason position.
World Series Odds: +1400
6. San Diego Padres
Strengths:
It goes without saying, but the San Diego Padres have been outstanding this season. Their offense ranks 1st in stolen bases (55), 3rd in slugging percentage (.466) and runs scored (325), and 4th in home runs (95). Within the pitching staff, they totaled the fifth-most quality starts (22) while striking out 565 batters; also 5th in the MLB. As long as they stick to their current formula, the Padres will be a difficult team to slow down.
Weaknesses:
It’s unorthodox, but perhaps the biggest weakness for the Padres is their lack of postseason experience. With a rookie manager in Jayce Tingler, it’s important to acknowledge this is a team that entered with the third-longest playoff drought.
World Series Odds: +1200
5. New York Yankees
Strengths:
On the search for their 28th World Series Championship, the New York Yankees offense will be able to overpower certain postseason opponents. The team finished with the most drawn walks (251), while finishing 4th in runs scored (314) and 5th in home runs (94). The pitching staff has been a roller coaster at times, but their 168 walks surrendered was the fifth-lowest in the MLB.
Weaknesses:
Oftentimes, it has been the lack of discipline that has cost the Yankees in the brightest of moments. The team is last in fielding percentage (.976), and has allowed the fifth-most home runs (83) during the regular season. In order to achieve a World Series title this year, New York will likely need to overcome opponents who are not normally prone to making those same mistakes.
World Series Odds: +750
4. Minnesota Twins
Strengths:
Defensively, this is one of the cleanest postseason teams out there. The pitching staff allowed the fewest home runs (62) and had the fourth-best ERA (3.58). At the same time, their defense finished with a .990 fielding percentage; the second-best in the MLB. If the Twins can outpitch their opponents, starting with the Houston Astros, they could be a threat in the American League.
Weaknesses:
While the Twins have playoff experience, they haven’t secured a postseason victory since the 2004 season. In fact, their last four opponents in the postseason have been the New York Yankees. While the Twins are presumed favorites in the first round over the Houston Astros, it won’t come without troubles. Specifically, look for Miguel Sanó, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver during the early stages. Each saw their wRC+ drop by at least 38 points, with Garver’s dropping specifically by 114 points.
World Series Odds: +600
3. Atlanta Braves
Strengths:
If the Los Angeles Dodgers fail to meet expectations, the National League will likely go through the Atlanta Braves. The team finished with the best slugging percentage (.438), while finishing 2nd in runs scored (348), batting average (.268), and home runs (103). This has been on offensive powerhouse through the campaign, and should continue to threaten postseason opponents.
Weaknesses:
The strikeout differential is rather boggling for the Braves: They finished with the third-most strikeouts (573), while their pitching staff finished with the 9th-least K’s (506) in the MLB. While their immediate opponents won’t pose as a major threat, it could prove to be damaging in the later stages of the postseason.
World Series Odds: +500
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Strengths:
The Tampa Bay Rays have rightfully earned the rights as the favorites in the American League. The offense finished with the second-most drawn walks (243) and sixth-most stolen bases (48), while the pitching staff has totaled the third-best ERA (3.56). It will take an elite opponent to knock out Tampa Bay from the postseason, as they start with a favorable matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Weaknesses:
The Achilles for Tampa Bay will be their strikeout rate. During the regular season, the offense struck out on 608 occasions; the most in the MLB. In fact, four players struck out 50+ times during the 60-game season. The Rays need to challenge more at the plate, or else their impressive regular season outing will be for nothing.
World Series Odds: +450
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Strengths:
On both sides, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been arguably the best overall team in baseball. Their offense ranks 1st in slugging percentage (.483), runs scored (349) and home runs (118). As for the pitching staff, they lead the league in team ERA (3.02) and walks allowed (145). If the postseason remotely relates the regular season, then this is the Dodgers’ World Series to lose.
Weaknesses:
Doesn’t this sound like a familiar narrative? Los Angeles once again finds themselves as a World Series contender, yet are 4-8 in their last two World Series appearances. They clearly have the addition of star outfielder Mookie Betts, among other assets, so it’s now time for the Dodgers to close the deal.
World Series Odds: +350
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